The number of transactions in October made the entire market surge, but November’s result – with preliminary data showing 1782 transactions (likely to exceed 1800 by the final count) – revealed, on one hand, that October’s statistics were exceptional and unsustainable in the near term. On the other hand, it confirmed that the decline in interest rates and improved purchasing power have brought buyers back to the market. Alongside the secondary market, activity in the new development market has also increased, but the average buyer remains sufficiently price-sensitive. As a result, sellers are still unable to shift the balance in price negotiations in their favor. To achieve a quick transaction, flexibility in pricing discussions is key. The market is therefore in a strong position, and the principle still stands that, due to the reduction in loan costs, we are currently in a period when real estate can be purchased at favorable prices.

Preliminary data shows that 782 transactions were concluded in Tallinn in November, which, while lower than October, was the second-best result of the year. This indicates that October’s euphoric performance was not a fluke. Sales in the new development market have also shown a clear upward trend since July, with 121 sales in October and 142 in November. Both secondary market and new development transaction numbers are the highest since the summer of 2022, signaling where prices are likely headed in the near future.

The Tartu market follows Tallinn’s trend with a slight delay. Secondary market transactions and new development numbers also show signs of improvement, but November statistics still reflected a decline. The number of transactions dropped by 20% year-on-year (123 transactions), and the median price decreased by 17% (€2201/m²). For the first 11 months, the number of transactions fell by 6.6%, the median price dropped by 3.5%, and turnover decreased by 6.9%. Market statistics tend to follow actual market changes with a slight delay.

In Pärnu, the market was sluggish, as typical for the winter season. Preliminary data shows only 46 transactions, making it the third-lowest result of the year. However, the median transaction price was one of the year’s highest at €2246/m², despite being 11% lower than last November. For the first 11 months of this year, the number of transactions decreased by 18%, the median price fell by 8%, and turnover dropped by 20%. Pärnu’s market recovery is the slowest – in a small market, the decline in demand is immediately noticeable. If supply decreases significantly, the risk of oversupply emerges quickly, explaining the volatility of the Pärnu market.

In Narva, fewer transactions were also concluded in November, but 63 transactions fall within the city’s long-term market average. The median price for transactions was the highest of the year and increased by 5.4% compared to last November. For the first 11 months, the number of transactions decreased by 7%, the median price rose by nearly 3%, and turnover declined by 3%.